2026 Cross-Strait War Scenario
Derived from an old anecdote, this Chinese proverb means, “ One who harbors great ambitions must know how to wait with patience. ”
There is something many people overlook. The Chinese Communist Party has 96.5 million members, making it the second-largest party in the world after the Bharatiya Janata Party of India, which has over 100 million members.
However, unlike a populist party like the BJP, the CCP is a group that moves most calculatedly and systematically in the world, solely according to the interests of China and themselves.
To begin with, the top echelon of the CCP's power consists mostly of graduates from the C9 League (九校联盟)—world-class prestigious universities in China established as part of the Ministry of Education's systematic university development plan, Project 985—who are either from STEM backgrounds or are former generals of the People's Liberation Army.
They emphasize “ external peace. ” The superficial reason for this is revealed in their explanation that "external peace" is a long-standing traditional value of China.
But are they truly standing by for the sake of external peace while the U.S. and Russia project military power everywhere, Israel wipes out surrounding nations and forces, and Iran indiscriminately strikes third countries that are not parties to the war?
In the past, although both China and Russia are permanent members of the UN Security Council with significant global status and voted against or abstained from resolutions condemning and sanctioning Syria, China limited itself to providing financial aid to Syria, unlike Russia, which directly intervened through military force. Did they really act only according to their "traditional values"?
“ 为人民服务 (Serve the People) ”
[ People's Liberation Army | 中国人民解放军 | PLA ]
Country: People's Republic of China
Military Strength • Total Standing Forces: 1.95 million • Tanks: 7,100 units • Artillery Assets: 5,690 units • Navy Combatants (Total Displacement): 3.19 million tons • Air Force Tactical Aircraft: 1,483 units
Chain of Command Affiliation: Chinese Communist Party (Party Army) Supreme Commander: Xi Jinping Chairman of the CCP Central Military Commission Other Command Structure Zhang Youxia Vice Chairman of the CCP Central Military Commission Dong Jun Minister of National Defense of the PRC
“ 民族, 民權, 民生 (Nationalism, Democracy, Welfare) “
[ Republic of China Armed Forces | 中華民國國軍 | ROC Armed Forces ]
Country: Republic of China (Taiwan)
Military Strength • Total Standing Forces: 230,000 • Tanks: 1,190 units • Artillery Assets: 1,530 units • Navy Combatants (Total Displacement): 240,000 tons • Air Force Tactical Aircraft: 354 units
Chain of Command Supreme Commander: Lai Ching-te President of the Republic of China Other Command Structure Wellington Koo Minister of National Defense of the ROC
[ Japan Self-Defense Forces | 自衛隊 | JSDF ]
Country: Japan
Military Strength • Total Standing Forces: 250,000 • Tanks: 467 units • Artillery Assets: 760 units • Navy Combatants (Total Displacement): 800,000 tons • Air Force Tactical Aircraft: 942 units
Chain of Command Supreme Commander: Sanae Takaichi Prime Minister of Japan Other Command Structure Shinjiro Koizumi Minister of Defense of Japan
[ United States Armed Forces | US Armed Forces ]
Country: United States of America
Military Strength • Total Standing Forces: 1.34 million • Tanks: 6,289 units • Artillery Assets: 5,043 units • Navy Combatants (Total Displacement): 8.26 million tons • Air Force Tactical Aircraft: 13,362 units
Chain of Command Supreme Commander: Donald J. Trump President of the United States Other Command Structure Pete Hegseth U.S. Secretary of Defense Dan Caine Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Samuel Paparo Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command
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[ November 2025 ]
China reacts violently to the newly established Sanae Takaichi cabinet's mention of expanding Japan's collective self-defense rights and the Self-Defense Forces performing defense missions for Taiwan in the event of an emergency.
In particular, a Chinese diplomat's remarks about the "decapitation of Takaichi" and "monkeys burning to death" cause great controversy within Japan, igniting conflict between the two nations.
[ January 2026: Operation Firm Resolve ]
January 1, 2026: Omens of U.S. military action. China and Russia warn the U.S., but the U.S. side refuses to provide separate comment.
January 2, 2026: The U.S. invades Venezuela. Less than a day after the operation begins, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is captured.
The flow of Venezuelan crude oil into China effectively ceases.
[ February 2026: Roaring Lion / Epic Fury ]
Israel and the U.S. launch a surprise air campaign against Iran with the goal of halting nuclear development and achieving regime change. Just one day into the operation, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is killed in a precision strike by the Israeli Air Force.
The Iranian Parliament immediately votes to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, causing a global oil supply crisis. China is hit the hardest.
Meanwhile, Japan announces plans to deploy missiles on islands approximately 110km from Taiwan. China and Russia condemn Japan's decision.
[ May 2026 ]
Japan effectively abolishes its regulations on arms exports and development.
[ June 2026 ]
The U.S. makes the first permanent deployment of the Typhon mid-range missile system to Japan.
In response to the U.S. Typhon deployment, China releases the first footage of the launch of the DF-17 hypersonic missile.
The U.S. Department of War reports that U.S. medium- and long-range guided weapons have been largely depleted due to the war in Iran, and interceptor systems have been heavily consumed to defend Israeli airspace.
President Xi Jinping visits North Korea. During a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, he promises cooperation in various fields, including military cooperation.
Release Date 2026.08.26 / Last Updated 2026.08.26